Ever since the WHO rather strangely recommended that countries ‘test, test, test’ for SARS-CoV-2, a mantra quickly parroted by leaders such as Jacinda Ardern, cynics have been predicting a ‘casedemic’, ie a pandemic narrative based purely on the meaningless pcr test. And so it came to pass: the decrease in deaths was matched by frenzied media hype about ‘cases’. Swedish Covid statistics through November exemplify the tenuous nature of the relationship between reported cases based on positive testing and the lethality of the virus.
Sweden refused to overreact during the ‘first wave’ of the alleged pandemic earlier in the year, choosing to follow a policy of allowing healthy people to develop natural immunity, with few restrictions. The country’s administration is now caught up in the case frenzy, bringing in a ‘new wave of restrictions after daily coronavirus cases hit a record’.
Here are the figures for the ‘Daily New Cases’ in Sweden, showing a terrifying rise over the last month, several times that of the first wave between March and July:
You could be forgiven for concluding that Sweden’s most dangerous time for the pandemic to date began in October. But not according to the death statistics – the Daily New Deaths for the last few weeks, normally considered the beginning of the seasonal flu season, average about a third of the figures for the first wave:
The United Kingdom shows a similar contrast, with a death rate slightly higher than Sweden’s for the new flu season:
In Italy the death figures for the new season are higher still, but again they contrast markedly with the case pattern:
The figures for Covid-19 cases match those of deaths most closely in the mid-late summer months. This may be because the PCR test picks up viral residue (and not just from Covid-19) for some weeks after infection, and there are far fewer new viral infections once the weather warms up (note: this is purely a hypothesis on my part).
As the ‘casedemic’ narrative has worked so well, world-wide claims of a frightening increase in Covid-19 are still invariably based on cases, even now when the new flu season in the Northern hemisphere will inevitably lead to more deaths from influenza and pneumonia.